Coming February 2026

Skill Versus Luck

Taking The Guessing Out Of Equity Fund Selection

Skill Versus Luck provides the facts and analytic insights necessary to enhance your equity fund assessment and allocation decisions. It is a must read for everyone involved in active management.

Now available for Amazon Pre-order:

{{brizy_dc_image_alt imageSrc=

It's all about skill,

isn't it?

Carrie Green

Director of Public Equity,

Tennessee Department of Treasury

“By clearly explaining both the old and the new ways of assessing manager skill, Michael has provided convincing evidence for why allocators must update their toolkits for selecting equity investment managers to meet the current moment.”

Corrado Tiralongo

Chief Investment Officer,

Canada Life Investment Management

“By exposing the limits of entrenched industry orthodoxy, Michael Ervolini reframes how we identify skill, offering allocators a disciplined path beyond outcomes toward better decision-making and stronger active management results.”

Stephen H. Dover

Chief Market Strategist,

Head of Franklin Templeton Institute

“Ervolini reshapes how investors think about performance, offering practical tools to separate true skill from market noise. A powerful framework for leaders navigating uncertainty in global markets.”

Yet, little is known about SKILL

Who has IT? How is it measured?

Defining Skill

SKILL = EXPERT JUDGMENT + INVESTMENT PROCESSES

“Performance is not a measure of investment skill. It is a measure of outcome. In investment management performance can be a function of skill but also of luck. We are more interested in how the performance outcome was achieved and in determining the characteristics that drove the outcome. In allocating capital to asset managers, we want to be paying for skill, not luck.”

- Corrado Tiralongo, CIO, Counsel Portfolio Services

Today's Challenges

FOR IDENTIFYING SKILLED INVESTMENT MANAGERS

Skill

Direct measures of skill are absent throughout the majority of the industry. Sketchy inferences of skill are based on fund outcomes like returns and holdings.

Process

There is little analytic confirmation of processes today. High-level schematics and verbal descriptions are relied upon to understand a fund’s repeatability.

Future Alpha

Which equity funds have a better than average likelihood of outperforming over the next five years, ten years, and more? There is no simple answer.

The Skill Library

LEARN HOW TO IDENTIFY SKILLED MANAGERS

  •      FEATURED    
  •      ARTICLES     
  •       ESSAYS      
  •    COMMENTARY  
     FEATURED    

Assessing Manager Skill - Shifting From Guessing to Knowing

SMART THINKING ESSAY SERIES, ISSUE 5

Sorting out which equity fund managers are skilled is arduous and expensive. Untold hours and huge budgets are expended each year in assessing manager skill across existing allocations as well as the vetting of potential new opportunities. Even more concerning, however, is that skill assessment is an extremely uncertain undertaking. Consequently, the risks inherent to fund assessment as it is currently conducted are likely underappreciated by the majority of decision-makers. Unwelcome results can include overconfidence and faulty allocation choices.

     ARTICLES     

Articles

WRITTEN BY MICHAEL ERVOLINI

Mike has authored dozens of articles about active management appearing in both academic journals and trade outlets, including: The Journal of Portfolio Management, The Journal of Investing, Institutional Investor, Pensions & Investments, Investments & Pensions (Europe), The Financial Times, and Forbes.

      ESSAYS      

Essays About Skill

INSIGHTS FROM THE APPLICATION OF BEHAVIORAL FINANCE

Behavioral Matters is a series of essays on the application of Behavioral Finance written specifically for professional investors and portfolio managers.

   COMMENTARY  

Skill Commentary

INTERVIEWS ABOUT THE LATEST IN ACTIVE MANAGEMENT

This section is coming soon. Stay tuned.

{{brizy_dc_image_alt imageSrc=
{{brizy_dc_image_alt imageSrc=
{{brizy_dc_image_alt imageSrc=
{{brizy_dc_image_alt imageSrc=
{{brizy_dc_image_alt imageSrc=
{{brizy_dc_image_alt imageSrc=

Featured Articles

When Buying Low And Selling High Destroy Alpha

Journal of Investing, Article Forthcoming May 2024

{{brizy_dc_image_alt imageSrc=

ARTICLE

ACTIVE MANAGEMENT - TAKE DOWN THE WHITE FLAG

{{brizy_dc_image_alt imageSrc=

ARTICLE

WEAK FEEDBACK AND DENIAL ARE KILLING ACTIVE MANAGEMENT

{{brizy_dc_image_alt imageSrc=

ARTICLE

WHEN UNCONSCIOUS DESIRES MOTIVATE FUND SELECTION

{{brizy_dc_image_alt imageSrc=

MICHAEL A. ERVOLINI

AUTHOR AND ACTIVE MANAGEMENT EXPERT

The ideas expressed on this website are developed and/or curated by Michael Ervolini. Mike has spent his entire 35+ year career leading efforts to improve and strengthen active management.

GET THE LATEST FROM SKILL VERSUS LUCK

{{brizy_dc_image_alt imageSrc=

The multi-trillion dollar active management industry is predicated on the idea that managers have skill – yet little is known about it – Who has skill? How is it measured? This website is dedicated to finding answers to the questions surrounding skill.


SKILL VERSUS LUCK © COPYRIGHT 2025