When Unconscious Desires Motivate Fund Selection
Journal of Investing | May 2023
Written by Michael A. Ervolini and Andrew R. Tuttle
When Unconscious Desires Motivate Fund Selection: Active Share and Position Count May Do More To Relieve Angst Than Identify Skill
Article Abstract
Identifying equity funds likely to outperform remains a daunting task for capital allocators. Traditional portfolio analyses provide useful insights into how a fund is being managed while offering little clarity on the potential for ongoing success. Active share and position count were introduced as metrics that identify funds that will generate excess returns via skilled management. This paper argues that these metrics provide no information regarding future fund performance or manager skill. It is further proposed that active share and position count do more to relieve unconscious anxiety provoked during the allocation process rather than enhance rigorous judgment.
Three Key Takeaways:
1.
Allocators remain committed to active equities but struggle in identifying skilled managers.
2.
Recent emphasis on high conviction does a poor job at identifying skilled managers.
3.
Metrics such as active share and position count do more to relieve angst than to support allocation decisions.

MICHAEL A. ERVOLINI, AUTHOR
The ideas expressed on this website are developed and/or curated by Michael Ervolini. Mike has spent his entire 35+ year career leading efforts to improve and strengthen active management.
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The multi-trillion dollar active management industry is predicated on the idea that managers have skill – yet little is known about it – Who has skill? How is it measured? This website is dedicated to finding answers to the questions surrounding skill.
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