When Unconscious Desires Motivate Fund Selection

Journal of Investing | May 2023

Written by Michael A. Ervolini and Andrew R. Tuttle

When Unconscious Desires Motivate Fund Selection: Active Share and Position Count May Do More To Relieve Angst Than Identify Skill

Article Abstract

Identifying equity funds likely to outperform remains a daunting task for capital allocators. Traditional portfolio analyses provide useful insights into how a fund is being managed while offering little clarity on the potential for ongoing success. Active share and position count were introduced as metrics that identify funds that will generate excess returns via skilled management. This paper argues that these metrics provide no information regarding future fund performance or manager skill. It is further proposed that active share and position count do more to relieve unconscious anxiety provoked during the allocation process rather than enhance rigorous judgment.

Three Key Takeaways:

1.

Allocators remain committed to active equities but struggle in identifying skilled managers.

2.

Recent emphasis on high conviction does a poor job at identifying skilled managers. 

3.

Metrics such as active share and position count do more to relieve angst than to support allocation decisions.

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MICHAEL A. ERVOLINI, AUTHOR

The ideas expressed on this website are developed and/or curated by Michael Ervolini. Mike has spent his entire 35+ year career leading efforts to improve and strengthen active management.

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